Bad Beat with 1 Out or Food Poisoning? Which is More Likely to Happen According to Math.

bad beats

Receiving a bad beat is an inevitable part of playing poker. Being ahead and already counting your winnings, only to get rivered with 1 out, is something which happened even to the best of us.

Without a doubt the number 1 thing poker players talk about is …yes you guessed it – bad beats. Almost each poker conversation includes bad beat boring stories, complains and rants.

Today, everyone who experienced a bad beat or heard multiple whiners complaining of the “impossible odds”, which work against them – all of you will see how likely is to receive a certain bad beat, compared to a real-life event. Math has answer for every question, so let’s investigate how odds of some bad beats compare to some other random non-poker related events.

Receiving a Bad Beat with 1 Out is as Likely as…..

bad beat poker

Getting an injury while skydiving. Supposedly 1 of each 50 adrenaline junkies is risking an injury, while skydiving. This is roughly a 2 % chance, which is also how likely that nasty 1 outer will hit the river. This is the nastiest bad beat you can receive in poker, but still a better outcome than real life physical injury.

Odds of Bad Beats with 2 Outs Equal…..

harvard poker

the possibility of getting accepted into Harvard. 1 in 22 candidates gets in this prestigious school, which means there is roughly a 4.5% chance of that happening. Delivering not so prestigious bad beat, when having just 2 outs, happens in 4.35% of the time. Seems like even the nastiest bad beats, happen fairly often. Bitter pill to swallow.

Unlucky Bad Beat with 3 Outs is just as likely as….

poker baby

birth control / child protection failure. So, all of you playboys out there – be careful! If you ever got 3 outed on the river, you already know how easy you could have been in much more difficult spot (pun intended)

According to the latest studies birth control fails: ~1 in 14 times. The odds of the last 3 outs hitting the river and delivering a bad beat are 1:14.3 or (6.52%)

Bad Beats with 7 Outs are as common as….

bad beat

receiving a food poisoning. Not talking about those serious poisonings, which can be deadly. Counting all of the minor food poisonings, each 6th meal on global scale, delivers some kind of stomach problems.

In a poker terms, roughly 15 % of the hands, in which we try to avoid 7 cards, going all in on the turn, will deliver an unfortunate river card.

11 Outs Bad Beats or having a…

poker sleep

sleeping disorders. As regularly studied subject, latest results show that approximately 24% of people have sleeping problems. 1 of 11 randomly selected people, have sleeping disorders and we can only imagine if all tested subjects were poker players.

With all those late nights, bad diet, emotional meltdowns and lack of sleep in general – poker players are rarely catching any quality sleep.

As common as getting a bad beat with 11 outs is, it’s scary to think almost everyone nowadays have sleeping disorder.

Finishing Words

Those were some comparisons between frequencies of bad beats and some random real-life events. Next time you think a bad beat is unimaginable bad luck or something which happens only to you – just look how often you can expect even the nastiest bad beats.

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